The Troika Chart

Comparative interests of the 3 big players moderating the negotiations

Reliable partners ALBSRBALB+SRB
Strategic Motivations Justify 1999 military intervention, present Kosovo as ‘success story' Demystify US interventionism, return to multipolar world Assert stability in Balkans with aim of EU integration
Geopolitical Motive Confirm US supremacy & interventionism Reemerge as world power Assure EU's unity, confirm CFSP credibility, assert proactive role
Basis for acceptable solutionAd hoc criteria /
Pax Americana
Universal principles /
International Law
Anything via UNSC
Suggested solution from the pov of international law Independence , one way or another Everything on which both sides agree Agreement desired, if not…
If unilateral declaration of independenceUnilateral recognition No UN approval Unilateral reaction in other crisis regionsInternal division; pulling out from joint mission
Precedent Not a precedent Precedent indeed Precedent, but not a precedent
Tactical mistake Underestimated Russia Late involvement in status processPremature alignment with US
Wishful Thinking - Close "the Albanian question"
- Kosovo is "successful state-building project", an example for Iraq and Afghanistan

- Disengage US troops
- Demonstrate good will towards "good Muslims"

Disengage US troops Demonstrate good will towards “good Muslims”
- Force US to step back from publicly stated commitment to Kosovo's independence- Use Kosovo as model for solving ex-USSR Russian-minority issues
- ‘Savior of international law' image
- Form common EU policy; "constructive abstentions of dissident members"
- Remain neutral in US-Russian geopolitical wrestling- Keep good relations with Serbs & Albanians at the same time
Pressure tools Unilateral action Ossetia, Abkhasia, Transdniestria Energy policy Blocking European integration, cutting aid funds
Catalyst for compromise Pressure on Albanians No hot stirring in ex-USSR Conditioning EU perspective with Serb-Albanian agreement
Conscience problem Post-war failures in Iraq, Kosovo Stood aside during 1999 bombing of SerbiaChronic lack of determination
Consistency problemsPro-autonomy in Georgia, Western Sahara, Moldova … Pro-independence in Russian minority areas outside RussiaPro-autonomy for Catalonia, Basque Country, Georgia…
Secondary agendaTactical military presence.Energy pathwaysReadmission of Kosovo refugees and organized crime members