If not resolved, Cyprus issue will become a new Kosovo

Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (KKTC) President Mehmet Ali Talat and Greek Cypriot leader Dimitris Christofias will be meeting to resolve the longstanding Cyprus issue for the fifth time next Wednesday.

The process is silently making progress while the whole world is struggling with a huge economic crisis and Turkey is once again facing terror. At an informal breakfast with President Talat in İstanbul, I had the opportunity to get detailed information on how the talks were proceeding.

What issues have the leaders discussed so far? Do they have hopes that this time there will be a fruitful result? To what extent are Ankara and Athens interfering with the process?

Talat seemed pretty optimistic about the negotiations. He held that the biggest difference with the past was real eagerness on both sides for a resolution. He thinks that in the past one party remained skeptical or ambivalent while the other was seeking a genuine solution. In regards to this, he recalls a historical anecdote he heard from his formal political rival, Rauf Denktaş: When prospects for negotiations appeared in 1967, Denktaş asked for advice from Ankara on what to do. Foreign Minister İhsan Sabri Çağlayangil told him to manage the situation without making a genuine offer. Of course, the same could be said for the Greek side in the past. When the Turkish side expressed eagerness for a viable resolution during the Annan plan process for the first time, it became evident that the Greeks were reluctant to reach a lasting solution to the issue.

The leaders have not dealt with complicated issues, such as borders and property; but apparently they have reached an agreement on the authorities of the federal government that will be formed. Of course, there will need to be further discussions on the details. The Greeks are proposing a presidential system pretty close to the existing one in their part, adding that an executive system not affected by the parliament's actions should be established. The Turkish side is proposing a slightly different model in which the government will be formed by members of parliament, combining presidential and parliamentary systems for better representation and more democratic legitimacy. Talat says what he has in mind is similar to the Swiss model. The seven-member cabinet will include four Greeks and three Turks. Affirmative votes by a certain number of Turkish members will be required to make decisions in the cabinet. Both parties will be equally represented in the Senate and higher judiciary. The Turkish proposal says presidents should be seated on a rotating basis. Instead of the 40-month Greek and 20-month Turkish presidencies, as outlined in the Annan plan, the Turkish side is proposing a rotation system in which a Greek will sit as president for three years and a Turk for two during the course of a single five-year presidential term.

Talat says Ankara is not causing any problems in the process, adding that no problems have arisen because they prepared their negotiation positions jointly with the Turkish Foreign Ministry. Talat further stresses that they do not feel pressure from Turkey in terms of timetables. In fact, he says Turkey should be more interested in the developments. Talat complains of indifference on the part of the international community. Sweden and England are closely following the process, but other countries, including the US, have shown no interest. He recalls that the Turkish side asked that the European Union not interfere with the process because the Greek Cypriots have full membership in the union.

While listening to Talat, the question arises of whether his optimism is merited. Do both sides feel the need for a lasting solution equally? Is the pressure for both sides to resolve the issue shared in the same degree? As long as the Turkish side delays the solution, Turkey's EU bid will go nowhere. However, the Greek Cypriots have no such a problem. They are already EU members despite the fact that they opposed a solution in 2004. Maybe the only concern for the Greek Cypriots is the possibility that the current state of division will become official in the event that the issue starts to appear intractable. Developments in Kosovo, South Ossetia and Abkhazia confirm this fear.

I think because he is aware of this, Talat says the Cyprus issue will become a new Kosovo if it remains unresolved.

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