Kosovo: Rumors will fly

As it is May, we are entering the period in which the ICJ could give its decision on Kosovo independence at most any moment. Having had the case since 2008, with arguments from all parties heard by last December, the Court must now be working on its recommendation to the UN General Assembly. There has been speculation about when it could be released with a flurry of stories several weeks ago about a "postponement" to later this year. But there seems no real reason for the Court to delay once it is ready. It has this hot potato and it won't go away simply by waiting. Also, the U.S. and EU countries making up the Quint appear anxious to get this phase over with so they can push Belgrade to finally give way and accept - if only tacitly - Kosovo independence and begin "technical cooperation" with Pristina. For this reason, Belgrade may be the only party not to be in any hurry for a decision.

Both sides have been staking out their opening positions regarding next steps. After some preliminary reluctance, Pristina and the Quint have jumped on the negotiations bandwagon with Belgrade, albeit with different stated aims. Serbia has been saying for some time that it favors settling the issue of Kosovo status through peaceful dialogue within the framework of international law and UNSCR 1244. Pristina and friends now say they too are ready for talks but not about status. Instead, they look to finding technical solutions to practical problems via Serbian acceptance of the need for good neighborly cooperation with Kosovo. (The Quint apparently puts the quintessentially political question of the north into the "technical" basket.) The EU sweetener to entice the Tadić government to agree to such an approach would be in the form of funding and/or quickened membership. The threat - though some EU countries have tried to downplay it - is that without Belgrade's acceptance of Kosovo (even if short of actual recognition), EU membership may never come.

All this is premised on likelihood that the ICJ will probably not rule clearly one way or the other. If the Court decides against Serbia, Tadić will have nowhere to hide and his government could fall. Such a judgement also would severely undercut the legitimacy of the United Nations institutions - Security Council and General Assembly - and their claim to make any kind of "binding" decision. Likewise, it is hard to imagine the court making a ruling that is unenforceable, as in ruling against Kosovo's declaration of independence. One must assume that the ICJ is not any more immune to political realities than any other "constitutional" court and will somehow fudge it.

So, get ready for the spin to start in earnest as the parties and their various agents, supporters and hangers-on jump into the rumor mill. "Sources" will "leak" secret plans for talks while official spokespersons continue to hold official positions. Much of what will be said will be meant to confuse and soften up the other side. Separating wheat from chaff will be difficult. My best guess at this point is that:

1. There will be talks, be they direct or indirect;

2. The Quint will try to bully/entice Belgrade into abandoning 1244;

3. Belgrade will probably not accept the Quint's opening gambit;

4. Some compromise solution will eventually have to be found perhaps including modification of Kosovo's boundary and some deal on EU membership.

This process may not be quick and the possibilities for simmering conflict to lead to violence may increase. The north - and Serb enclaves in the south - remain possible flash points. The Albanians may seek somehow to up the ante, perhaps by threatening separatism elsewhere. But the international community should keep its eye on the ball of achieving a solution that is not completely at the expense of one side. Such would not promote regional stability. And the internationals should be careful of setting precedents they are not ready to live with elsewhere.

http://outsidewalls.blogspot.com/2010/05/kosovo-rumors-will-fly.html