Kosovo and Serbian Resolve

The EU Council of Ministers has approved the first steps toward ratification of the Stabilization and Association Agreement (SAA) with Serbia; however, several EU members have indicated that no further progress will be made until the Kosovo issue is resolved.

For the time being, Serbian officials are sticking to the position that if forced to choose between the EU and Kosovo, they will choose the latter - a territory many Serbs still consider their Jerusalem.

Opposition forces in Serbia claim that certain events that have unfolded in Kosovo are chipping away at Belgrade's resolve, and they accuse the government of holding secret negotiations on EU membership.

The approval of the SAA's ratification comes more than two years after the signing of the agreement, which was conditioned on Belgrade's full cooperation with the Hague-based International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY).

ICTY Prosecutor Serge Brammertz assured the EU ministers that Belgrade was doing everything in its power to arrest the remaining two indictees, Bosnian Serb wartime General Ratko Mladic and Goran Hadzic.

The SAA is the first step for Western Balkan countries toward EU membership. Its ratification takes months, sometimes even years, as it must be ratified by the parliaments of all EU member countries, as well as the European Parliament. After the SAA, the membership application of each candidate country must be approved. The EU is yet to debate the application Serbia submitted in December 2009.

The Kosovo sticking point

Influential voices from the EU have told Belgrade that the next step toward EU membership will not be possible as long as Serbia continues to refuse to recognize Kosovo's independence. So far, Kosovo's independence has been recognized by 22 of the 27 EU member states.

However, in previous documents signed with Serbia, the EU held that Belgrade had no control over Kosovo, and as such, its EU integration is not related to the territory.

Serbian Foreign Minister Vuk Jeremic has on several occasions made statements to local media warning the EU against forcing Serbia to make a choice between European integration and Kosovo.

Indeed, a variety of divergent messages have come from the ambassadors of influential EU members states. British Ambassador Stephen Wordsworth recently told the Belgrade daily Danas that Kosovo and the EU "are no longer separate tracks."

"I would like to reiterate that the Stabilization and Association Agreement between the EU and Serbia ... does not refer to Kosovo, in line with the UN Security Council Resolution 1244. We will, therefore, have to solve that kind of problem or there will be consequences for the process of Serbia's European integration. That process will certainly be slowed," Wordsworth said.

He also told the Serbian authorities that - following a decision by the International Court of Justice (ICJ) on the legality of Kosovo's declaration of independence, which may be unveiled in July - they should not insist on relaunching status talks - a move that would come into conflict with the 22 EU member states that have recognized Pristina's independence.

Similar remarks were made by Swedish Ambassador to Belgrade Krister Bringeus: "Allow me to be very, very clear - if Serbia does not resolve the issue of Kosovo, Serbia will not become a member of the EU. And this is not a new condition. It is a fact, a simple fact. And that is the advice I wish to convey."

The clearest message was sent to Belgrade by British Minister for Europe David Lidington, during a visit to Kosovo on 24 June. After a meeting with Kosovo President Fatmir Sejdiu, Lidington said: "It is difficult to imagine Serbia in the EU while the dispute with Kosovo is still open," adding that Pristina's independence was "irreversible."

Former Serbian ambassador to Paris Predrag Simic told ISN Security Watch that the Serbian authorities must understand that "80 percent of the EU has recognized Kosovo and will not change that position."

The ICJ's ruling on Kosovo "will certainly be an important event, but one should not expect the interested parties to abandon their decision after the ruling is made. Serbia is facing a big dilemma. It has taken the stand that in case of being given the choice of Kosovo or the EU, Kosovo will be the priority. I think that stand is currently being severely tested," Simic said.

Waning resolve?

However, there are those who believe that Belgrade is not as determined as it once was to hold on to Kosovo at all costs.

Marko Jaksic, representative of an association of Serbs from northern Kosovo - part of the Serb National Council - claims that the fiery rhetoric of Serbian officials "is only a mask for the local public."

"On the other hand, Belgrade is sending the EU completely different messages, based on which one can clearly see that between Kosovo and the EU it will choose Brussels," Jaksic told ISN Security Watch.

According to Jaksic, this is illustrated by the fact that Belgrade is not sanctioning the participation of Kosovo Serbs in the local elections organized by Pristina; that it has tacitly agreed to the shutdown of Serbian mobile operators' signals in Kosovo; and that it has drastically reduced investment in the Serb-populated regions in Kosovo.

"That way, by day Belgrade is sending messages that it will not give up on Kosovo, whereas by night it holds secret talks with the EU," Jaksic said.

Goran Bogdanovic - Serbian Minister for Kosovo and Metohija and member of Serbian President Boris Tadic's Democratic Party - dismissed such ideas, saying that Belgrade's only objective is to demonstrate that it "resolves the most difficult issues through dialog."

"There has been enough fighting and conflict. We need to head toward peace and solving the existing problems in Kosovo. Serbia will never abandon the Kosovo Serbs," Bogdanovic said during one of his visits to the Serb enclaves in Kosovo.

Looking to Cyprus

Some opposition parties, however, think that sort of policy will not lead Serbia into the EU, and that Belgrade should re-examine its priorities.

The Democratic Party of Serbia, led by former prime minister Vojislav Kostunica, claims that EU membership can no longer be the government's priority due to problems with Kosovo, as well as problems within the Union itself.

"Serbia will have to find an alternative, because the EU, due to its problems, is putting the admission of new members on a backburner or pushing it into a complete dead end," party spokesman Petar Petkovic told ISN Security Watch.

Petkovic believes that resolving the dispute with Kosovo will be a condition for EU membership, while the Serbian Constitution "clearly stipulates that Kosovo is an inalienable part of Serbia."

Petkovic went on to say that Serbia should join the EU only as a whole, whereas now it should reorganize its national policy and set internal reforms according to European standards as the top priority, regardless of whether the final outcome of those changes will be EU membership.

Still, the Belgrade authorities have not shown any public signs that their resolve has lessened. Ministry for Kosovo and Metohija senior official Oliver Ivanovic, who met with British Minister Lidington in Kosovo on 24 June, told the British official that the Cyprus model was the best solution for Serbia. "That means that Serbia would join the EU with its entire territory, including Kosovo, but when it joined, European rules would not apply to Kosovo," Ivanovic said.

However, voices from the EU have on several occasions emphasized that Brussels can no longer afford a new Cyprus. If, or when, that becomes Brussels' official policy, Serbia will face a Hamletian dilemma - Europe or Kosovo. At the moment, it seems that no one in Belgrade knows the answer to that question.

Igor Jovanovic is ISN Security Watch's senior correspondent in Serbia and Kosovo. He is based in Belgrade.

http://www.isn.ethz.ch/isn/Current-Affairs/Security-Watch/Detail/?lng=en&id=118306