Kosovo May Still Tip Precarious Kosovo Balance

Almost nine years after the US-led NATO attack against Yugoslavia led by President Slobodan Milosevic ("The Kosovo War") in 1999, Kosovo's political status is once again becoming a hot topic in world affairs.

Despite the fact that it is a small Serbian province occupying an area of just 10,800sqm, has a population of around two million, and is neither of great strategic importance nor has much in the way of natural resources, Kosovo is the source of a territorial dispute that is threatening to once again destabilise the Balkans. Any mishandling of the sensitive issue of Kosovo's political future by the international community could throw the region into chaos. It would also set a dangerous precedent for the rest of the world if national boundaries are redrawn along ethnic lines.

Kosovo's final status, which has been under the trusteeship of UN and NATO forces since 1999, is hostage, firstly, to the bitter disagreement between the Albanian-led authorities in Pristina and the Serbian government in Belgrade.

In the latest round of talks overseen by the troika of international mediators (Russia, the United States and the European Union) in Vienna last week, the only positive result, if it can be called that, was the agreement by representatives of Belgrade and Pristina to abstain from statements and actions that could jeopardise the process of determining Kosovo's future status.

However, the positions of two sides remained contrary.

Serbia has always been opposed to giving up what amounts to 15 per cent of its territory. It has, however, agreed to offer Kosovo's leadership broad autonomy, which Serbia's Minister for Kosovo, Slobodan Samardzic, said last week would be giving it "more powers than it ever had in its history".

But for the Albanian leadership in Pristina, that is not enough. It wants nothing more to do with Belgrade and has vowed to settle for nothing short of full independence. It has also said that it will unilaterally declare independence if a final push for a diplomatic settlement is not found by December 10, the deadline for negotiations given by the UN.

The tense political atmosphere is the result of deep-seated ethnic hostility, which flared up in the 1980s between Kosovo's mostly Muslim Albanians, who account for roughly 90 per cent of the population, and the Serbian minority of mostly Orthodox Christians, and discontent is still as fierce as ever.

Resolving the thorny issue of ethnicity and independence is made that much harder by the lack of agreement among the troika of international powers, which is in charge of diplomatic efforts to resolve the deadlock following the failure of the UN Security Council in July to adopt a resolution.

Two major differences have arisen, firstly over the need for a deadline to the talks and secondly, over the future of the plan by UN special envoy on Kosovo Martti Ahtisaari for an internationally supervised independent Kosovo.

Russia firmly supports Serbia's stance and has stated that it would not support any decision on Kosovo's status that is not agreed to by Serbia. It has also insisted that the talks should not have a deadline. Early this week, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated that Kosovo is one of the so-called "red lines" in Russia's external policies. In other words, it is non-negotiable.

Some analysts said Russia's staunch support is partly due to the fact that it fears an independent Kosovo will spur a break-away trend among separatist movements, such as the one Russia is facing in Chechnya.

Meanwhile, the US has promised to back an independent Kosovo. This is easy to understand. On the one hand, an independent Kosovo nine years down the line could be seen as a mission accomplished for US foreign policy. It would weaken Serbia, one of Russia's closest allies in the Balkans, and greatly assist its post-Cold war struggle with Russia for influence over the strategic European.

Even the EU can't present a united front on the Kosovo conundrum. Britain, France and Germany seem ready to back Washington's call for an independent Kosovo, while Spain, Greece and Slovakia - who are facing their own problems with separatist movements - are opposed to the plan, which they fear could adversely affect them at home.

All parties agreed last week in Vienna that they would meet again separately in mid-September and then later this month in New York on the sidelines of the UN general assembly. However, a final solution for Kosovo seems as elusive as ever.

It is essential to bear in mind that any solution must take into account the stability of the whole region and the interests of all its people. Before any attempt to resolve the impasse is made, confidence-building measures must be placed top of the agenda, rather than demands from both side.

A peaceful solution for Kosovo can only be achieved by the continued efforts of both Serbia and Kosovo to resolve their differences - supported by unbiased diplomacy from the international community. Any unilateral acts or imposed solutions will run the risk of inflaming tensions, which would be a tragedy for not just Serbia and Kosovo, but for the whole Balkan region. After all, what everyone wants, whether Serbian or Kosovar, Muslim or Orthodox Christian is a political environment that focuses on the opportunities of the future rather than the wrongs of the past. - VNS

http://vietnamnews.vnagency.com.vn/showarticle.php?num=01OUT070907