After Kosovo, where next?

The International Court of Justice seems to have done its utmost to sit on the fence over the legality of Kosovo's secession from Yugoslavia. It has ruled that Kosovo's declaration of independence was legal, but it has not pronounced on the legality of the secession as such. This feels to me like an evasion. Common sense and the norms of free speech suggest that, of course, they are allowed to proclaim their independence. The question is whether the rest of us should recognise an independent Kosovo as a legal entity.

The ICJ's evasion of this issue is, however, politically convenient. If the court had positively declared Kosovan secession legal, then secessionist movements across the world would have taken huge heart. But if they had declared secession illegal, then it would have been a severe embarrassment to those western nations who took part in the Kosovo war - as well as to the 69 nations that have now recognised Kosovan independence.

The sensitivity of this issue has split the EU, which is meant to have a common foreign policy. Most EU states have recognised Kosovan independence. But some of those that fear their own secessionist movements - for example Slovakia, Spain and Rumania - have not yet done so. Will they be happy with the ICJ verdict? Probably not - the Slovakian judge voted against.

http://blogs.ft.com/rachmanblog/2010/07/after-kosovo-where-next/