Slovenia in the spotlight

Today, Slovenia assumes the presidency of the EU from Portugal, thereby becoming the first country from the 2004 wave of enlargement to fulfil this important role. While Slovenia must also contend with ratification of the Treaty of Lisbon, it is the issue of Kosovo which, according to the Slovenian foreign minister, Dimitrij Rupel, "may well be the greatest challenge of the Slovenian presidency".

Although there is some apprehension about Slovenia occupying the presidency at such a critical moment for the Western Balkans, there is much to suggest that Slovenia has both the necessary capacity and understanding to help the EU articulate a more coherent and constructive approach to the concurrent issues of Kosovo and EU accession. As Ruprecht Polenz, chairman of the German parliament's foreign affairs committee, maintained: "It is an advantage that the presidency is being taken over by a former Yugoslav republic with a deep understanding of the situation in the region." As such, Slovenia must seek to establish a common EU position based upon Europe's own integrative principles and practices; in accordance with both UN security council resolution 1244 and the security concerns of the Western Balkans.
According to Rupel, "the prevailing opinion within the EU is that smaller states are more successful in the role of the presidency. They do not tend to emphasise their own interests, even though it does not mean that they underestimate them either". Despite the complications of recent history, Slovenia's ties with the countries of former Yugoslavia remain deep and enduring, though not without tension. The country's potential mediating role will depend, however, on how it employs the unique regional insight it possesses, both for the benefit of Europe's common foreign policy and for peace and stability throughout the Western Balkans.

Though Rupel has spoken publicly of the need to "work calmly, patiently and in a coordinated manner towards the goal that everybody has - that is stability in the Western Balkans", the incompatibility of this goal with a unilateral declaration of independence by Kosovo Albanians has remained under-explored.

Such security threats are deeply felt by several countries in the Balkans, whose opposition to a unilateral declaration of independence continues to mount. Slovenia itself publicly fears the de facto partitioning of Kosovo, describing it as a "very serious" risk. Romania's defence minister, Teodor Melescanu, meanwhile, recently stated that "a unilateral decision could have a very negative effect on the entire region and is not in keeping with international law"; while the Romanian president, Traian Basescu, indicated that, "based on the principle of territorial integrity and inviolability, we cannot recognise Kosovo's unilateral declaration of independence". This apprehension towards independence for Kosovo is shared regionally by Greece and Bulgaria, and more broadly by other EU member states, including Spain, Slovakia and Cyprus.

However, these voices have been overlooked thus far as the EU continues to assert its own unity in the face of considerable conjecture and doubt, particularly in the absence of a further UN security council resolution. Slovenia's accession to the presidency therefore provides an opportunity to open up new channels for communicating these regional security and stability concerns to a broader European audience.

Rupel also makes clear that "if there is opposition to the direction that the EU and the US are taking, then we should find some way to accommodate ourselves and also Kosovo to this new situation". By recognising that the EU's leverage can create the necessary space and pressure for compromise, constructive dialogue must be encouraged in order to reach a negotiated outcome. Slovenia is well placed to navigate both the EU and the Western Balkans through these challenges.

With respect to the issue of European expansion, Rupel emphasies that "Slovenia would like to see an intensification of this accession process". Despite optimism that Serbia will sign a Stabilisation and Association Agreement (SAA) on January 28, however, the issue of Kosovo threatens to further undermine the European perspective in Serbia. With the first round of presidential elections scheduled for January 20 and with Serbia's parliament having overwhelmingly adopted a resolution stating that Serbia would not sign international treaties that failed to acknowledge its territorial integrity and sovereignty over Kosovo, further accession towards the EU in the current climate will prove extremely problematic.
These internal political dynamics have been negatively impacted by overt and tacit attempts to link Serbia's future membership of the EU to its acceptance of Kosovo's independence. French president Nicolas Sarkozy has made it clear to Serbia that "Kosovo independence is inevitable" and "if you respect the independence of Kosovo, you have a future in the [European] family"; while the EU Council expressed "confidence that progress on the road towards the EU, including candidate status, can be accelerated". Serbia's prime minister, Vojislav Kostunica, has described such comments as "particularly offensive and unacceptable"; while Serbia's foreign minister, Vuk Jeremic, has vehemently complained that "we cannot exchange our territory for our European future".

As the Greek foreign minister, Dora Bakoyannis, has argued, "any attempt at linking Serbia's European perspective with the developments in Kosovo would be erroneous and counter-productive"; a position shared by both Bulgaria and Romania. The region's European future, as with its security and stability, would be undermined, not strengthened, by a unilateral declaration of independence by Kosovo Albanians; a point which Slovenia must emphasise throughout its presidency.

During its six-month presidency of the EU, Slovenia must therefore utilise its unique position and experience to articulate a more constructive European approach to the Western Balkans. Regional concerns about a unilateral declaration of independence have been overlooked, despite very real and apparent security fears. By working to strengthen these channels of communication within the EU, Slovenia can stimulate debate and dialogue over the issue of Kosovo and future EU membership; the one perspective that can encourage a softening of the respective stances of Serbia and the Kosovo Albanians - in accordance with the principles outlined in UN security council resolution 1244 - and bring lasting peace and stability to the Western Balkans. Serbia's European future, however, cannot and should not be linked to the issue of Kosovo's status - whether tacitly or overtly. Alternatives to independence do exist, but Europe's willingness to explore them is lacking. If Europe is ready "to recognise the realities of the situation in the Western Balkans", then Slovenia is ready to provide real European leadership on Kosovo.

http://commentisfree.guardian.co.uk/ian_bancroft/2008/01/slovenia_in_the_spotlight.html

Download PDF document