Kosovo’s independence and its global ramifications

Kosovo, as you know, is a small enclave which Belgrade still considers an integral part of its territory. In practice, however, Serbian governance in Kosovo is virtually non-existent. It has been administered by the United Nations since the end of the NATO-led assault in 1999 in response to Serbian ethnic cleansing of Kosovar Albanians. The Albanians, who constitute 90 percent of its population, have since then affirmed that they will accept nothing short of full independence, while the Serbian government is prepared to offer broad autonomy.

International negotiations to determine the final status of Kosovo began in 2006. In December the U.N. negotiating team tasked with securing its future reported back that there is no chance for a negotiated agreement. Following a closed debate, in which the Security Council heard from both the Serbian prime minister and Kosovo's president, the European and U.S. representatives announced the two sides were irreconcilable. The U.S. and its key European allies thus basically refer to the Ahtisaari Plan announced in April 2007 which envisages a "supervised independence." Under the proposal, the international agencies will gradually steer Kosovo toward full independence and membership to the U.N., while preventing it from merging with Albania or having its Serbian-populated areas splitting off to become part of Serbia. Once the Serbian presidential election in early February is out of the way, the experts maintain, the Kosovar Albanians will be allowed to declare independence.

A new Balkan war on the horizon?

In contrast to widely held concerns, independence doesn't seem to affect the regional stability in the short-run. As pointed out by Allan Little in his analysis titled "Countdown to Kosovan independence," it is unlikely that a declaration of independence will cause a full scale war this time, because wars in the Balkans "do not happen spontaneously." Indeed, "they have to be planned, organized, funded, resourced, armed equipped, guided." In that regard, it will be European Union membership prospects of regional countries, including Serbia, that will further determine what kind of shape developments in the Balkans will eventually take. Yet, it will definetely have serious global ramifications.

The Serbs and Russians see this move as part of U.S. attempts aimed at "the destruction of the international order." Moscow in particular fears that a dangerous precedent will be set by the carving off of Kosovo, one that could have implications for the conflicts around the periphery of Russia itself. Actually, such concerns were reported to have been shared by certain European Union members as well. Greek Cyprus is said to be the most strongly opposed but Greece, Slovakia, Spain and Romania have reportedly stated their reservations in a similar manner.

The whole process indeed raises certain questions of grave importance for the future of the much-speculated international order. Among others, how will any settlement concerning the status of Kosovo affect other people across the globe who want secession from a larger state?  Recently, Semih İdiz, in his piece in the Turkish Daily News ("The Kosovo precedent in the making"), wrote the Americans think that the "independence of Kosovo will not represent a precedent of any sort for anyone." İdiz quoted Ambassador Frank G. Wisner, Washington's Special Representative to the Kosovo Status Talks, as saying Kosovo's case is "unique," and it "must be addressed on its own merit."

As to İdiz, this line of thinking and justifications do not sound to me realistic either. Kosovo's status will definitely affect the whole world. More importantly, the dispute demonstrates that a new action-reaction type of relationship between the so-called West and the world's rest will determine the course of international politics henceforth. It has already become a part of a wider power-play between the U.S. and its key European allies on the one hand, Russia, on the other. We will see soon, I guess, Russia's retaliation in Abkhazia. In the days to come, all those hostile particularly to the U.S. will increasingly gather around the defiant Russia and the eventual combination will be a pinch of ultra-nationalism or Islamic extremism, or another pinch of Third World nationalism or Latin American communism. It is no doubt that turbulent but joyful days await us.

All these circumstances and Karl Marx's aforementioned slogan, "Proletariat of the world, unite," bring me to recall a cold winter's day in Moscow in 1996. I was passing by Marx's statute in front of the Bol'shoi Theater, right across from the historic Red Square, where his call is carved, when I suddenly realized that it had been painted over with graffiti. What was written instead, made me laugh for hours. It read as follows: "Michael Jackson fans of the world, unite!"

Yes, Michael Jackson fans of the world, unite, and together play his famous song "Thriller," which aptly opens with the following words: "It's close to midnight and something evil's lurking in the dark..." If international politics does not scare you enough, think of Michael Jackson's face after the numerous plastic surgery operations; it is also like the "Russian-led-global-anti-American coalition" a combination of one pinch of this and another pinch of that, nevertheless...

http://www.turkishdailynews.com.tr/article.php?enewsid=93137

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