Distrust mounting over Kosovo question
The status quo is unsustainable, but a unilateral declaration of independence would be worse.
(Elisabeth Maragoula, New Europe) Tuesday, September 18, 2007
Last week's headlines of a shootout at a jewellery store outside Priština and a fatal clash with police in neighbouring FYROM (former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia) near the Kosovo border are examples of regional insecurity.
Distrust is mounting as impatience builds over the question of Kosovo's future - status quo as an international protectorate, conditional independence, unilaterally declared independence, substantial autonomy, partition, frozen conflict or any other scheme not yet devised. Since NATO put an end to the 1998-1999 Kosovo war, concurrence between diametrically-opposed Belgrade and Priština on a final status has been impossible. Serb leaders reject independence, citing territorial sovereignty, while Kosovo Albanian leaders clamour for it.
After more than a year of unavailing diplomatic dialogue, the struggle for control of Serbia's southernmost province is escalating more than ever - with Serbia and Russia allied against Kosovo Albanians and the United States, and the EU-27 split somewhere in between.
And the clock is ticking. International envoys are due to hand the UN Security Council an inconclusive report when the "last", current round of tiresome, toilsome talks concludes on December 10 - prompting ethnic Albanians to lead off by hoisting their national flag in Priština. A solution - not a report - is essential before then.
"I do think that nobody can stop the Kosovars (Kosovo's ethnic Albanians) from declaring independence" after December 10, Pál Dunay from the Geneva Centre for Security Policy told New Europe. "If we are clever, we are going to use it (period before December deadline) extremely well and we are going to push the Serbs that they should give up their obstructive attitude."
Aleksandar Mitic from the Brussels-based Institute 4S sees it differently, saying that the ethnic Albanians would certainly not make such a move without a green signal from the international community. So far, the EU-27 is divided over "independence" plans, with the Big Five (Slovakia, Romania, Cyprus, Spain and Greece) opposing a recent plan allowing Kosovo conditional independence.
The status quo is unsustainable, but a unilateral declaration of independence would be worse.
Recognition of this move coulxd have "damaging consequences... to the security situation around Kosovo and the region," Mitic said. There would be "legal and political chaos inside of Kosovo." Some repugnant issues facing Kosovo if the majority-population ethnic Albanians lead a breakaway move from Serbia are:
-Who will command KFOR (NATO-led peace-keeping force)?
-Who will take over for UNMIK (UN Mission in Kosovo)?
-And, who will protect the minority Serbs? The EU must act as a united foreign policy leader and persuade Belgrade and Priština to achieve a viable status solution very soon.
Persistent disunity in the EU could leave the door open to regional destabilisation.
Talk of partition has resurfaced. This idea of slicing off northern Kosovo above the Ibar River has recently crept back onto the discussion table among some diplomatic circles.
Although partition is completely opposed, "it can't be ruled out", Dana Allin from the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies told New Europe.
Partition is an unlikely scenario as Serbs also live below the river line, but there could be an exodus of Serbs if the situation worsens. It could awaken irredentist ideas in ethnic Albanians living in southern Serbia and in parts of FYROM, and in Serbs living in Bosnia-Herzegovina's Republika Srpska.
The International Crisis Group firmly warned in a report late last month: "There is more than a little potential for ‘Greater Serbia' and ‘Greater Albania' ideologies to feed each other if nourished by the partition of Kosovo."
Kosovo is one of the poorest areas in Europe and is a haven for crime and corruption. A forsaken independent state such as this cannot economically or politically sustain itself in today's world - especially in the centre of the Balkans - or Europe for that matter. Support from its far-reaching neighbour across the Atlantic is not nearly enough.
"This entity (Kosovo) needs external support," Dunay said. The EU has already taken on this project, funding well over one billion Euro over the last eight years, and needs to follow through to resolution.
The road to regional security and development in the Balkans starts with Kosovo. Serb, Kosovo Albanian and European politicians have only a short time to start trusting one another.
