After Kosovo, the deluge

One month on from Kosovo's unilateral declaration of independence and the ramifications of recognition have already generated serious and escalating tensions throughout the former Soviet Union, an area of growing strategic importance to the European Union. Both of Georgia's breakaway regions - Abkhazia and South Ossetia - have requested international recognition of their independence, along with a coalition of civil society organisations and political parties in the Moldovan province of Trans-Dniester, whilst Armenian and Azerbaijani armed forces have clashed over the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh. Though the US secretary of state, Condoleezza Rice, insists that Kosovo constitutes a sui generis case due to the nature of the collapse of the former Yugoslavia and its associated wars, it is in the context of the violent breakup of the former Soviet Union and its own frozen ethno-national conflicts that the Kosovo precedent has immediately come to life.

On March 7, the parliament of the Georgian region of Abkhazia unanimously supported a resolution that it had "established itself as an independent, democratic, law-governed state", and appealed to the UN and other international bodies, including the EU and the OSCE, to recognise its independence. The timing of the move, coming two days after an almost identical resolution by the parliament of South Ossetia, was inspired by recognition of Kosovo's independence, with further encouragement garnered from Russia's withdrawal from a 1996 sanctions treaty. Fearing a resumption of arms supplies from Russia, Mikhail Saakashvili, the Georgian president, has vowed a "policy of zero tolerance towards the militarisation of Abkhazia".

Commenting on these developments, Benita Ferrero-Waldner, the EU's commissioner for external relations, acknowledged "a growing preoccupation and anxiety that Russia may be paving the way for recognition of Abkhazia", adding that "Georgia's territorial integrity has always been clearly supported by the EU ... this is absolutely clear". What is not clear is how the EU intends to restore confidence and facilitate reintegration in the region, given widespread support for Kosovo's declaration amongst its member states.

On March 4, ethnic Armenian and Azerbaijani armed forces clashed over the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh, violating a 1994 ceasefire agreement in an incident described as the most serious of its kind for many years. Since then there have been a number of skirmishes, resulting in military and civilian losses on both sides. Though attributed by some to Armenia's current political turmoil, the growing assertiveness of separatist ethnic Armenians following Kosovo's declaration has unsettled Azerbaijan. Ilham Aliyev, Azerbaijan's president, has publicly declared that his country, a strategic ally of the US, is ready to take back the breakaway region by military means if necessary and has begun rearming in preparation, warning that "the conflict will come to an international solution when Armenia feels Azerbaijan's force". In 2008, oil-rich Azerbaijan increased its military spending to more than a billion dollars, provoking something of a mini arms race with Armenia, whose own military budget has risen by over 20% in the past year.

In the Moldovan province of Trans-Dniester, meanwhile, a coalition of civil society organisations and political parties appealed for international recognition of their 'de facto' independence. In a joint statement, they emphasised that "from the moment that individual countries recognised the independence of Kosovo, a new way of creating states under international law came into being. This is now a precedent for the recognition of the independence of other self-declared states". In addition, they warned that the application of "a policy of double standards" by the international community would only lead to increased tension throughout the region. In response, Vladimir Voronin, Moldova's president, has attempted to reach a deal with Russia that guarantees Moldova's continued sovereignty over Trans-Dniester in return for a promise never to join Nato.

Despite US and EU insistence that Kosovo constitutes a unique case without precedent, in the space of one short month the principle of unilaterally declared secession has been embraced and mimicked, accompanied by destabilisation, armed clashes and threats of possible negative consequences should double standards be applied. Russia's claim that independence for Kosovo would stimulate a "parade of sovereignty" in the Caucasus has already begun to ring true, backed by their implicit and explicit support. The aspirations of local ethnic majorities, eager to establish their own mono-ethnic states, have been automatically fuelled by the Kosovo model. How the EU will contend with future challenge in a region that constitutes a growing sphere of influence and interest remains to be seen. By discarding the ideas of compromise, accommodation and reintegration, however, their support for the partitioning of Serbia as a solution to ethno-national conflicts is myopic and ill-conceived.

Defending violations of international law through reiterations of "uniqueness", meanwhile, provides an open invitation for the creation of further "unique" solutions to other supposedly "unique" situations. The international system thus ordained, based upon a constellation of arbitrariness, double-standards, inconsistency and ambiguity, will only provide more "unique" justifications for future unilateral decisions and declarations, at the expense of universal principles and stability.

http://commentisfree.guardian.co.uk/ian_bancroft/2008/03/after_kosovo_the_deluge.html

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