Will Ahtisaari's plan boost separatism in the world ?

Finland's former president and now Nobel Peace Prize winner Martti Ahtisaari  is the author of a peace plan for Kosovo. Even if his plan does not strictly mention the word "independence", its aim is the gradual recognition of Kosovo as a nation. The most important feature of Ahtisaari's plan is the fact that it dares make an important step towards the acceptance of a new State, although the international system is not yet ready for it due to the fear of separatism in many other  countries.

The fear is linked directly to the wave of new independence declarations following the downfall of the socialist block in the 90'ies, as well as to the existence of a long list of separatist movements, some of which are very old, waiting for convenient international circumstances to declare independence. The main regions seeking to build up their own State are Scotland and Wales in the United Kingdom, Corsica in France, Northern Italy (instigated by the Lega Nord), Flanders in Belgium, the Kurdish territory in Turkey,  Tibet and Uigur in China, South Sudan, Québec in Canada, Chechnya in Russia, Western Sahara in Morocco, three provinces in Somalia and Northern Sri Lanka, where Tamil Tigers have been fighting for a long time.

Precedents

During the peaceful revolution in former socialist States following the fall of the Berlin wall, the nations that had been oppressed tried to gain sovereignty through self-determination. That was the first reaction of the fifteen former Soviet republics after the break-up of the Soviet Union in 1991 - they declared independence.

The Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia was dissolved in a similar way. In  1991 and 1992 republics seeking autonomy declared independence. That led to a  war for territories which ended up in the 1995 official recognition by the Dayton Agreement of the newly independen Slovenia , Croatia , Bosnia and Herzegovina , Serbia , Montenegro and Macedonia . Serbia 's autonomous regions Kosovo and Vojvodina did try from the very beginning of the  separatist process to obtain a major level of autonomy.

Vojvodina was not successful in it, unlike Kosovo whose success is due to the  important Albanian ethnic majority living there (88% of the province's population) and to the Milošević régime's policy since 1989 to disregard minorities' human rights. Anti-Serb feelings started first to spread in human rigths organizations, then in 1992 new political parties were founded and finally, in 1994, an armed resistance movement, The Kosovo Liberation Army (UÇK in Albanian), was set up. This organizational process and the constant stubbornness of the independence seeking Kosovo people laid the  foundation for a new State, that started to take form in Ahtissari's plan in 2007. The plan, set up by Ahtisaari, provides for "controlled independence" of Kosovo, and ended up in the unilateral declaration of independence in February 2008, with the support of the United States and most EU members.

Delay of Recognition

In spite of the Kosovo Albanians' long struggle - first for autonomy and then for  independence - the international community did not immediately support the idea of a new State in Europe because there was a general fear that an international recognition of Kosovo would trigger a wave of local wars in the name of the right to self-determination. That is why, countries such as Spain and Romania have not yet recognized Kosovo, due precisely to the fear that it might add water to the mill of separatist movements such as ETA.

The Georgia Case

The USA was the first major power to recognize Kosovo and is now lobbying for its inclusion in the international system (for example, Kosovo had a finalist in its first Miss Universe competition last July), but Russia has not recognized Kosovo but supports the independence of Abkhazia and Ossetia from Georgia .

Last year, we witnessed a short Georgian-Russian war about those territories, which ended in a partial retreat of Russians troops and in the recognition by Russia and Nicaragua of the independence of those two regions, in spite of the rejection by the United States and NATO.

It is very probable that in the future, changes in the international system and geopolitical interests might play a decisive role in the recognition of future States, so we shall see whether the path shown by Ahtisaari in the case of Kosovo will enhance separatism on world level or not, and whether the right to self-determination will lead to international chaos. If every ethnic group were to demand independence, the international system would be flooded with almost five thousand States.

By Edgar Ramiro Luna Cuéllar Ph.D, Professor of Political Sciences, Government and International Relations, University of Rosario, Argentina

http://www.cope.es/06-01-09--plan_ahtisaari_fomentara_separatismo_mundo,25932,noticia_ampliada

Translation by Svetlana Maksovic