Expert sees Turkish ‘micro-state' in Cyprus if peace talks fail

The Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (KKTC) might emerge as an internationally recognized micro-state if the ongoing talks between the Turkish and Greek Cypriot leaders to reunite the island fail, an expert has said

Mehmet Hasgüler, an associate professor at Çanakkale 18 Mart University and a Cyprus expert at the Ankara-based International Strategic Research Organization (USAK), said rising Greek Cypriot nationalism on the island was an obstacle for the creation of a bi-zonal and bi-communal federal state in Cyprus. He said the Greek Cypriot administration, internationally recognized as representing the entire island, is unwilling to share with the Turkish side the political and economic gains it has made in the past decades as the island's internationally recognized government and a European Union member since 2004.

The growing Turkish Cypriot frustration with unfulfilled EU promises that their international isolation will be eased is also a factor that could lead the Turkish Cypriots to look for alternatives other than reunification with the Greek Cypriots, Hasgüler suggested.

Turkish Cypriot leader Mehmet Ali Talat and Greek Cypriot leader Dimitris Christofias have been holding reunification talks since last September. Talat hopes the talks will produce a deal to be put to referendum by the end of this year.

According to Hasgüler, the Turkish Cypriots should vote "yes" for the plan, even though a UN plan to reunite the island failed in 2004 because the Greek Cypriots voted "no." But in the event efforts to reunite Cyprus fail due to Greek Cypriot rejection for a second time in five years, the UN and other international actors should not remain mere bystanders, he said.

He explained that the Turkish side, which would support the plan, would not become a victim of the failed peace process once again. "The Greek Cypriots do not want to share the political and economic gains they have achieved over the past decades with the Turkish Cypriots. Thus they are likely to say ‘no' to the new plan for reunification," he said. Although the Turkish Cypriots should vote for the plan, he said, they should also have a "Plan B" in case this plan also fails.

"It will then become certain that the two sides will not unite. But how much more time and energy will the UN spend to ensure unity in Cyprus, where no clash has occurred since 1974. How much more money will it spend on Cyprus when there are many other conflict-prone regions in different parts of the world? How much longer is it going to stand by and watch the injustice of the world isolating the Turkish side, which says ‘yes' to peace and unification," he said.

"In the event that the Turkish side approves and the Greek side rejects the plan, Cyprus will not be the same Cyprus," said Hasgüler, underlining that a settlement plan drawn up by Finland's former President Martti Ahtisaari for Kosovo, which laid the foundations for Kosovo's eventual independence, would then serve as an example for Cyprus as well. "Despite Serbia's refusal, Ahtisaari's plan allowed Kosovo to declare its independence. This plan is going to ensure that the KKTC becomes an independent state; it will allow it to be accepted as a microstate," he said.

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