Imposing Integration in Kosovo

The government of Kosovo and the EU's International Civilian Office Kosovo (ICO), with support from those states that have recognized Kosovo's independence, have put together a strategy aimed at integrating with Pristina the institutions of northern Kosovo, an area which still harbors the most compact settlements of Kosovo's remaining Serbs.
The strategy, however, is not going down well in Belgrade, where the Serbian authorities have vowed to ensure that the plan does not come to fruition and that northern Kosovo - which borders Serbia and has a population of around 40,000 Serbs - is not allowed to fall under Pristina's authority.

Indeed, Belgrade faces a major challenge in maintaining influence in northern Kosovo while at the same time pursuing accession to the EU, many countries of which have recognized Kosovo's independence and support Pristina and the reintegration plans.

Analysts believe that the strategy cannot be implemented peacefully without the consent of the Kosovo Serbs and Belgrade.

Details of the strategy have not been officially revealed, but the existence of the document has been confirmed by top Kosovo officials and International Civil Representative Pieter Feith. According to parts of the strategy that have been leaked to the media, the action in northern Kosovo is kicking off now precisely because Serbia is in a severe economic crisis and can no longer finance the Kosovo Serbs as it once could.

Apart from investing in northern Kosovo, the Pristina authorities are to form a new municipality in northern Kosovska Mitrovica (the single biggest Serb municipality in Kosovo), and hold a local election there.

The strategy's authors believe a number of Serbs can be expected to vote in that election, due to the fact that around 20 percent of Serb voters took part in the November local election, despite Belgrade's opposition.

That would lead to the disbanding of Serbian institutions in northern Kosovo, which Pristina calls "parallel structures."

Diminishing the role that the UN Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK) plays in northern Kosovo, with which the local Serbs currently cooperate very well, is also part of the plan.

Divide and conquer?

Immediately after the media unveiled the strategy, Serbian Minister for Kosovo and Metohija Goran Bogdanovic headed to northern Mitrovica to meet with the local Serb leaders.

"We will fight against the implementation of that strategy with all diplomatic and legal means. We will continue leading a pragmatic and constructive policy in relations with the international community and will not do anything to contribute to destabilization, not just in the north, but in the entire province as well," Bogdanovic said after the meeting, stressing that they are "ready for the dialogue but also ready to defend Serbian institutions in this area."

His deputy, Oliver Ivanovic, went even further, saying that the announced strategy was "dangerous, because it feeds the radical Albanians' hopes."

On other hand, Serbs living south from the Ibar river are surrounded by Albanians and have much looser ties with Belgrade, and as such, do not boycott Kosovo's elections and administration. That fact has created stark divisions among Kosovo's Serb population, with the majority still loyal to Belgrade and the minority accepting local authority.

At the same time, Pristina has justified the necessity of integrating northern Kosovo by asserting that it is a center of crime.

"The most important thing now is to carry out that strategy, which is in the common spirit of Kosovo's and international aims to establish law and order in that part of Kosovo, which still harbors parallel structures in violation of the law," Kosovo President Fatmir Sejdiu said in an interview with Deutsche Welle.

While the Pristina authorities have been strongly supported in the matter by US and other countries that recognized its independence, Russia has sided with Serbia.

The Russian Foreign Ministry said it condemned the appearance of a strategy for northern Kosovo, adding that only the UN Security Council had the mandate to pass solutions for Kosovo.

Meanwhile, rhetoric from both sides has made the debate a dangerous one. Kosovo Parliament Speaker Jakup Krasniqi on 8 February announced that if Serbs in northern Kosovo wanted to join Serbia, Albanians in southern Serbia were also ready to become part of Kosovo.

On 14 February, a bomb was planted under a police car in the southern Serbian town of Bujanovac. One police officer and his wife were injured in the blast. Belgrade immediately described the act as terrorism, but there have been no arrests.

The danger of imposition

Analysts believe that those events also indicate that Pristina will not be able to implement the strategy without the consent of Belgrade and the Kosovo Serbs.

"Imposition will not work. Any strategy for the north has to take account of the views of the Serbs; their justifiable concerns, their continued orientation toward Belgrade and the actors whom they regard as legitimate or not. In this respect, UNMIK is the only international mission capable of engaging Serbs in the north," Ian Bancroft, British journalist and executive director of the organization TransConflict, which deals with inter-ethnic relations in the Western Balkans, told ISN Security Watch.

KosovoCompromise project author Aleksandar Mitic thinks the statements by NATO representatives indicate that the Serbian government will be under a lot of pressure due to the desire to fully integrate Kosovo Serbs into Kosovo society.

He told ISN Security Watch that the Belgrade government's relatively "lukewarm" position on the Kosovo Serbs' participation in the last local election had created divisions among the Serb population in Kosovo, raising the question of whether the Serbs from northern Kosovo will also take part in the election organized in their region by the Kosovo government.

Choosing between the EU and Kosovo

An anonymous source inside the Serbian Foreign Ministry told ISN Security Watch that a number of EU member states had stepped up pressure on Serbia. The UK, France, Germany and Italy have handed the Serbian Foreign Ministry a note saying that Serbia should become an EU member, but also that a solution for relations between Belgrade and Pristina acceptable to all must be found by that time.

That, however, cannot mean the reopening of the status issue, because the leading western countries that have recognized Kosovo's independence have on several occasions made it clear to Belgrade that it is "a permanent step."

Bancroft, however, believes Belgrade will for the time being remain firm in its position. "Calls to boycott Kosovo's institutions, especially the creation of a new municipality in Mitrovica North, will persist, as will efforts to secure support for further negotiations once the ICJ [International Court of Justice] has issued its ruling," he said.

"The EU's discourse, however, will increasingly revolve around the need for good neighborly relations and regional cooperation, which will allow individual member states to interpret whether or not Serbia is demonstrating a constructive attitude toward Kosovo. This will have a direct impact on the pace of Serbia's accession," Bancroft added.

Mitic also believes the matter of Kosovo will soon stand in Serbia's way on the road to the EU, i.e. that Belgrade will no longer be able to maintain its current "both Kosovo and the EU" position.

"It is absolutely certain the EU wants Serbia as a member. But the question is in which borders it wants Serbia. Namely, Serbia sees itself with Kosovo as part of its territory, but 22 member states have already recognized the independence of Kosovo Albanians. The entire EU may not have acknowledged Kosovo, but the European Commission treats it as an independent state," Mitic said.

According to him, the EU will put more pressure on Belgrade to establish good neighborly relations with Kosovo, meaning de facto recognition of independence.

"That is why, prior to signing the Stabilization and Association Agreement, Serbia should have insisted on a response from the EU - how does Brussels see Serbia, with or without Kosovo? Since that was not done, a process was launched, which will soon, definitely before a decision on Serbia's EU membership application, lead to the dilemma ‘EU or Kosovo,'" Mitic added.

All Serbian officials have said that in such a situation Serbia would choose Kosovo. However, those statements have all come before Belgrade has really been faced with that dilemma. Now it is apparently time for a new round of decision-making.

http://www.isn.ethz.ch/isn/Current-Affairs/Security-Watch/Detail/?lng=en&id=113166