Fog envelops common EU policy on Kosovo

Much like Viana, the contours of the EU's common position on the future of Serbia's predominantly ethnic-Albanian breakaway province appear barely visible.

Throughout their stay in Portugal, ministers and top EU officials conceded that they were being confronted with a key test and repeated the unity mantra almost ad nauseam.

"We want to maintain a united position today, tomorrow, and the day after tomorrow. And we'll do it," said Javier Solana, the bloc's foreign policy chief.

"Having unity of opinion is probably the only factor of stability in such a complex issue," added Portuguese Foreign Minister Luis Amado, whose country holds the six-month rotating presidency of the EU.

However, when asked to explain what exactly they were united about, words failed.

True, all member states agree in supporting the efforts of an EU- US-Russia troika charged with finding a negotiated solution to the stand-off by December 10.

And the EU currently does indeed speak with one voice. It is the voice of Ambassador Wolfgang Ischinger, its representative in the troika.

But no one is quite sure how each individual member state will react if the troika's efforts fail and Kosovo's leaders do go ahead with their threat and declare independence against Belgrade's - and Moscow's - wishes.

"I think the most important result of this meeting was to not open a debate on what will happen after December 10. It would be unhelpful and extremely damaging. And it might also bring bad luck," quipped Massimo D'Alema, Italy's foreign minister.

In essence, the EU's hopes of achieving a common foreign policy on this issue hinge on the troika succeeding in finding a peaceful deal between Belgrade and Pristina.

The wounds of the bloody breakup of Yugoslavia still run deep in the continent.

But with both sides relentlessly sticking to their guns and sounding increasingly belligerent as the deadline looms, pessimism is growing in many European capitals.

Speaking in Viana do Castelo, the EU's foreign policy chief exuded optimism.

"The feeling (among us) is that the troika has started on a good footing, the support of the EU is total and December 10 is a clear deadline," Javier Solana told a press conference.

But his subsequent comment - "I want to appeal to the parties to really get engaged because time is not infinite" - appeared as much directed at his EU colleagues as to officials in Pristina and Belgrade.

Admittedly, the problems posed by an independent Kosovo abound.

Government leaders in Slovakia, Hungary, Cyprus and Spain are extremely wary because they fear that it might incite ethnic minorities in their own country to do the same.

And Germany is still reeling over its December 1991 move to unilaterally recognize an independent Croatia and Slovenia, infuriating its allies in Brussels in the process.

An independent Kosovo would also be an expensive affair for the EU.

Italy's D'Alema estimated that an EU mission in the new country would cost the bloc 3 billion euros (4.1 billion dollars) per year, and that is excluding the cost of sending peacekeeping troops there.

In any case, a plan by UN envoy Martti Ahtisaari for supervised independence for Kosovo is ready to be vetoed by Russia, one of the permanent members of the UN Security Council, thus severely limiting the options available.

As one Brussels diplomat put it, "We can't have a situation whereby the EU's foreign policy is being decided in Moscow."

Any idea of "partitioning" was categorically excluded by EU officials in Viana do Castelo and there was much talk of finding "creative solutions" to the stand-off.

"We'll cross the bridges when we get to them," said David Miliband, Britain's secretary of state for foreign and commonwealth affairs.

Translated, this means the EU has no "plan B."

Speaking at the end of the meeting, Amado explained it thus: "We have 27 member states and every state has different perceptions. But I cannot conceive a situation whereby Russia and the US have a strong position and the EU is non-existent."

As things stand, this is a very concrete risk.

http://www.digitaljournal.com/article/225599/ANALYSIS_Fog_envelops_common_EU_policy_on_Kosovo